U.S. Housing Market Disaster in 2024 - Danielle DiMartino Booth
Transcript:
in this video you’re about to watch my interview with Danielle D Martino Booth she authored a book called fedup after
she spent nine years working for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas during
the 2008 Global financial crisis and she actually served as an advisor to the
president of the Dallas fed at that time Richard fiser now Danielle is the CEO
and chief strategist for her company called Qi research a research and analytic firm I have all of her
information in the show notes and I hope you enjoy the
show Danielle I am so honored to be sharing the screen here with you and I and I just have to tell you you know I
really appreciate you you know your experience with macroeconomics and what’s going on in the country right now
I mean this is a really important you know uh podcast and thank you so much
and Welcome to our show thank you for having me we are definitely at a critical intersection so
to speak you know Danielle the US economy is not looking really good and there’s so many issues that are going on
right now that are affecting Americans financially uh and will be in the coming months and I don’t think that many
people are prepared what they really need to do to get through you know what
some economic experts believe will be something worse than the global financial crisis of 2008 and you know
I’ve heard many people even say that you know depending on what happens over the next couple of months I mean what we may
go through may even take us back and compared to the Great Depression back in
1929 and that was 10 years long and before we go into you know your opinions
and recommendations on the current state of the economy especially I want to talk about things as it relates to housing
and jobs Danielle please tell everyone who you are a little bit about your background working with the Dallas
Federal reserve and what what do you spend your days doing right now uh so I run Qi research uh I was at
the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for nine years I advised Richard fiser on
pretty much every aspect of the financial markets and the economy and how monetary policy what the FED does
how that played into how markets behaved how the economy reacted um before that I
was on Wall Street I got my MBA in finance and actually just like Richard Fischer he was one of the few non phds
who was running uh a district Federal Reserve kind of like J Pals not a PhD in
economics uh he’s he’s he’s more of a a practitioner more more of a lawyer but
um the important thing is that I kind of came at my position at the FED after
leaving Wall Street inside of a firm that was kind of a Pioneer if you will
in collateral Iz mortgage obligations so I got to see basically the the inside of
the stuffing in the turkey what formed the foundation of the housing bubble the
last one and how that ended up culminating in a disaster for what more
than 10 million Americans lost their homes to foreclosure so I that’s that
that is my context that’s my background and it’s how I approach running Qi research is the same way that I used to
advise Richard Fischer I I like I I see everything through the prism of how monetary policy interacts with the
financial markets interacts with the economy yeah well I have to say I read your book titled fed up I highly
recommend everybody to read it actually it was it really opened my eyes and it it seemed like Regulators made some
really bad decisions bailing out the US economy back in 2008 and Danielle from
interviews I’ve heard with you you know you’ve stated that the US actually was
heading into a recession in 2019 even before the pandemic and you
know it it’s easy to Monday Morning Quarterback we can always say you know hindsight’s crystal clear 20120 but what
mistakes were made during the global financial crisis and I know you were in
with the Dallas fed during that time and where were we actually headed in 2019
prior to the pandemic so I think um I think that during the
financial crisis and its aftermath the the biggest error that were that was
made chiefly by Ben Bernan uh and then his PR then his successor Janet Yellen
Was Fear uh there was this ingrained fear of we can’t let the economy stumble
and fall we have to do everything we can to prevent a down cycle and what you end
up doing when you pressed forward with the second round of quantitative easing the second
round of money Printing and then the third round you ended up creating an environment where the bad players in the
economy can subsist because the junk bond market is open so instead of poor
business models getting washed out of the system they end up being on life support because the Federal Reserve kept
interest rates at the zero bound artificially repressed interest rates and continued to grow its balance sheet
now that only worked for so long and jal’s first attempt he came into office
February the 4th 2018 jal’s first attempt to wean the economy off of the
fed’s extraordinary policies ended up culminating in along with a major trade
war ended up culminating in something my my mentor Dr Lacy hunt has taught me and
that is we had a contraction in in FYE global
trade and when when trade contracts for a full year in US history at least the
US economy has been in recession we were seeing a lot of the same patterns in late 2019 that we’re seeing today in
other words the the the number of states with Rising jobless claims was blowing out and we knew that we were headed into
recession and what I have maintained and it’s a very it’s kind of a a heretical
take if you will is that the US economy was forcibly closed uh in March of 2020
and it was also equally forcibly reopened because the first stimulus
checks the first round of the cares act uh paying people an extra $2,500 a month
uh to not work uh those federal unemployment um stiens if you will they
hit American bank accounts on April the 15 15th 2020 so my stance right now is that the
US economy has been in expansion since June of 2009 and if not for this the
extraordinary stimulus measures that were undertaken after the pandemic hit uh we would have long since been in
recession but we know that that fiscal stimulus continues to this day but I’m
of the mindset that we’re 172 months into one of the long EST well period the
longest recovery technical expansion in US history you know you had mentioned in
your book fed up that back in 2008 the fomc had mostly and you just mentioned
you know phds uh but you said that most of these people had phds um in economics and actually they
had earned their doctor from you know some of America’s top universities so these are book smart people you know
when I look back then at you know what ended up happening a lot of the
decisions that the fomc made you know really seem to have
benefited the elite or their Wall Street businesses and it seems like when you
know when I’m looking at you know what happened with the pandemic and the dropping of the interest rate again to
zero you know pumping the economy why is it that it seems like we’re ually
bailing out the elite and I mean is this intentional I mean these are smart people is was this intentional to do or
is it where we are today just a result of just bad
decisions well it’s it’s definitely a combination to suggest that um to
suggest that Allen Greenspan was not fascinated with being the popular boy after he was kind of the the the geeky
kid growing up but he became very popular on Wall Street because Wall Street figured it out pretty quickly
after the crash of 1987 that hey the Maestro’s got my back and he’s not going to let me suffer any
losses and that made him very very popular in some very tight circles
inside and outside of the Beltway he was fascinated by that and uh to that extent
it was kind of intentional the flip side of it is these are really brilliant people you you
cannot study Kindom metrics without having a deep knowledge of calculus you
have to be smart to your point but did a lot of the economists not understand
that trickle down was a myth yes what we’ve seen over the past several decades
is that the amount of money that CEOs pay themselves has gone up exponentially
compared to what they’ll pay the average worker so the percent of corporate profits that are going to the workforce
has declined appreciably over time share BuyBacks have exploded that’s a good way
to pay yourself a nice bonus if you’re joq or jenq CEO um but I I think that one of the
Fatal flaws of phds in economics is that they believe that if the economy is
growing or if profits are filtering up to Corporate America that Corporate
America is going to somehow spend more on the worker bees the economy and
thereby everybody benefits it’s simply not how the real world Works greed is
real and that’s what we’ve seen manifest and yet the FED continues to
try the same exact Solutions uh every time and the only thing that it really
creates is a higher level of aggregate debt do you think that
pal actually made decisions that were I mean I I know you say they make similar
decisions and you know I I think you know we I think we can all agree now it
wasn’t in the America’s best interest to you know drop rates to zero and uh
especially to keep them that way for such a long period of time but it really wasn’t a good idea for them to get into
buying mortgage back Securities I think what maybe that was what 2012 or
something like that that they started doing that and you know dropping mortgage rat to ridiculous unrealistic
levels uh you know taking on that role in America I mean do you think that um
that pal has made worse mistakes than than Bernan or I mean what’s your
opinion with that so it’s it’s interesting you ask because it was the most hotly debated
topic when I was inside the FED there were two biggies right the first was
gee we didn’t see this we didn’t see what asset price inflation was doing and
how that would affect the economy because the inflation measures that we track they don’t incorporate uh the
stock market the bond market they don’t properly account for runaway prices and
housing so that was kind of one of the conclusions and why I ended up writing fed up because they recognized the the
the flaw in the model and they did nothing to correct it the other major debate internally was whether the the
FED venturing into mortgage back Securities which is a form of credit easing which violates the Federal
Reserve Act of 1913 you’re never supposed to choose winners and losers in the economy you’re never supposed to
say people in Housing Home Builders they’re going to win everybody else is to the detriment of everybody else
that’s that that’s against the Federal Reserve mandate uh in fact the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 specifically says
that the Federal Reserve can never own a government sponsored Enterprise piece of paper and yet here we
are what Powell the reason the debate was so hot was we were concerned this is
in 0809 we were concerned that that the FED getting into mortgage back
Securities would depress Mobility that you would end up having
people who were prisoners in their own home so even if there was a better job halfway across the country they wouldn’t
choose to take the job which grows the economy because they had these golden
handcuffs and of course we we lost we were in the M minority people arguing
against it and what J Powell did in 2019 initially
with the pivot and then jumping back into full-blown quantitative easing and
mortgage back Securities on a scale magnitude that had never been seen what
J poell failed to recognize was that he could have gone the route at the time
when the world was melting down he could have when the pandemic first struck simply gone into treasuries with
quantitative easy he didn’t in fact the pendulum swung the opposite direction
the FED bought a third of the mortgage back Securities Market a third 60% two two-thirds of mortgages in
this country are south of 4% um the golden handcuffs are real the
lack of Mobility is exactly what we were concerned that it would be and it is
it’s causing the stagnation in the economy to be worse than it would
otherwise be because there are there are jobs out there um but a lot of Americans
will not leave their homes you know it is so true what you’re saying and as a real estate broker I mean I’m seeing
this firsthand I’m having conversations with sellers that are literally prisoners in their house because and and
and a lot of these sellers really can’t even afford to be there right now I mean especially the ones over the last
several years they’re so a lot of them are so remorseful and you know but they don’t want to get rid of that rate they’re like oh I’ve got to hold on with
all my might because of that do you know J pal
personally so I have never met Jay um Jay definitely knows who I am but that’s
because he is remains a very good friend of Richard fisers and he saw many of the
markets briefings that I wrote for fiser over the years so he’s certainly familiar with my mindset and um and the
work that I’ve done uh but no I’ve never met I’ve never met J Powell and you know
my my my biggest concern is his being out of
touch he’s a his net worth is north of $100 million you he worked in private
equity for a good part of his career he’s a member of the chvy chase Country Club Life’s not
bad I think he’s realizing it in retrospect that does not go back and
undo the damage that’s been that’s been wrought on the US housing market and I
don’t I don’t think anybody’s even really aware of how bad things are
actually going to be if I’m good friends with Melody Wright and she follows the
mortgage Market very closely and just hearing her and knowing that November
2023 is the first month that Americans who’ve taken advantage of the we don’t
ever talk about this in in in shared company it’s not polite but there were a lot of extensions to the forbearance
measures so some Americans have not paid their mortgage since March of
2020 so November is and there’s a very very high bar going forward Ward to get
another 12-month extension very high bar she Melody’s explained to me that you’d have to be God himself to get another
extension but when you when you look at the Confluence of factors that October’s the first month that you had to start
paying back your student loans that November for many Americans who are upside down in their homes November is
going to be the first month that they have to make that mortgage payment we we we see disaster you you’re familiar with
the data you know that at the peak the last housing bubble that FHA was south
of 4% of mortgages being made it’s 177% today there are a lot of people who have
squeezed into homes that they cannot afford they were the last thing they were expecting nobody explained escrow
to them they weren’t expecting their their their their insurance their homeowners insurance to go through the
roof they weren’t expecting property tax assessments to affect their mortgage despite their low mortgage rate and they
sure as heck didn’t know know what what a you know a 310 HVAC was going to be to
to to to replace they have no idea the hvac’s initial estimate when they’re
boiling in their homes and their air conditioning has gone out they’re like you’ve got to be kidding me that’s the cost of a car a decade ago so um no I I
think uh I don’t think J poell knows how bad off so many Americans are are going
to be and or the speculation that he drove I call him the Airbnb jocks he he
just he does not know Danielle you I mean there’s so much I we could have a show in what you just said um it’s so
true you are spoton and I’ve been serving the Housing Industry since 1989
so a long time I was a contractor I was a home builder uh you know long before I
became a licensed agent or became a real estate broker and but I love Melody
Wright I’ve actually had her on my show we had a live show uh with her and um
and then a separate Show podcast and boy I tell you she’s been hitting the road and she’s been bringing it and the
frustrating thing is and that’s why I love listening to you so much is because
we’re not hearing what’s really going on and I don’t I don’t want to say that they’re deliberately lying to us because
I do believe that a certain amount is like what you just referenced the
Regulators they’re not struggling they don’t see the day-to-day things that you
know we see or hear when we’re going into people’s houses when we’re watching them not be able to fix the heating and
air system um they can’t fix the roof and it’s leaking and now they have mold
growing in their home and they have kids in the house and they’re and you know what three over 300 and this is so
frustrating because you can’t find the data you have to dig for it so much but over 300,000 people in the first quarter
of this year continued to be bailed out a foreclosure and with them extending
FHA to 40-year mortgages recasting balances taking 30% Biden signed that
into effect we’re now 30% of the balance of the defaulting mortgage can be put in
a second mortgage at the end interest free red I mean if they hadn’t been
doing this we would be looking at a real disaster I mean do you believe that we
are looking at something right now or something that’s coming that could be worse than the 08 Global financial
crisis so there it’s it’s a great big question and I think that I I can’t
fully answer it but what I can tell you is that um some analysis that I’ve just
gone through shows that almost 700 00 billion
dollar uh of credit card and auto loans were
extended that would not have been otherwise had there been a rental
eviction moratorium and you didn’t have to make your car payment for 12 months lending standards were um were deeply
deeply loosened um there there were there were banks that were told
quietly if somebody can demonstrate that they’ve received a a stimulus check go ahead and make them
the loan and substitute that out for income verification I me Mak your eyes roll into the back of your head to think
about the implications and this was spread out across Autos cars and
homes and then the current ad Administration came in and they said to the lenders by the way we sure would
appreciate it if you were be inclusive in your lending standards as well um
it’s it’s nobody it does nobody any favor to take on more than they can afford um repossessions right now car
repossessions you’re the number of people in that industry the number of workers in that industry is down by
about 25% so it’s it’s they’re only repossessing as many cars as they can
they’d be repossessing more if they had and it’s also a
dangerous um profession I mean Repo Men are literally getting shot at oh man
they are I mean it’s Google car repossession and what you’re going to see if you hit Google news is a bunch of
local TV stations reporting about this person or that person getting shot at
when they tried to repossess a car um the loan to value on car loans is about
140 150% in many cases and the cars are not running a lot of them have simply
broken down the reason I bring this up is because there was a cohort of Americans
who fled the city bought a house in the suburbs or the excerts squeezed into the mortgage
payment they had to buy a car for the first time they couldn’t exactly take the subway that didn’t exist in the
exurbs to the grocery store so they have an overpriced car their car insurance in
some cases exceeds their payment today and they’re also homeowners and
they make enough to have bought the house and bought the car but they make so much they don’t they don’t qualify
for student loan forgiveness they make north of 60,000 I worry about the the percentage
in the middle I’m going to throw something out to you I looked at um a particular Credit
Union’s um their loan portfolio specific specifically for their cars this is just
to give you an idea when their loans were originally uh underwritten only
about well I can’t use hard numbers because I can’t anyways from when they underwrote those
car loans to today there’s been a 12-fold increase in credit migration out
of Prime into subprime of existing
loans that so think about that for a minute credit ratings were so
inflated by the stimulus measures that were taken that since the stimulus
measures have disappeared credit card debt has exploded and there’s been a 12-fold increase in people migrating
back into the subprime buckets Capital 1 Financial walked away from car loans in
June of 2022 it is still writing off a ton of
autol loan debt and credit card debt what we don’t see is housing yet
because the forbearance existed for longer than any other type of debt that
American households had taken on so all we can do is look through the prism of other types of debt to get a feel for
where we’re headed with the the Housing Industry plus the Airbnb
jocks well uh I know firsthand you know and I’ve
said this for quite some time the government bailouts has been the only thing that’s kept the inventory is you
know one of the things that’s kept inventory so low because people are in their home that you know really wouldn’t
be had there not been for so much bailout Co 19 money started like you
said 20120 some of these people 2019 were behind um it was very you know
little to prove that their financial distress was because of coid I think they only had to mention that but one of
the things that I’ve said and and I get so much push back because I’m trying to
tell everybody what I’m seeing and all I hear is you’re wrong your houses housing
is only going to go up and I know that one of the reasons why we haven’t seen such a major Fallout of the people that
are paying their mortgages is because the job market has appeared to be
relatively strong um I think until now and you know but I can tell you that
with the rising cost of businesses right now the lack of business credit that we’re seeing um coupled with the fact
that consumers are really now backing off a discretionary spending you know Danielle I heard you say recently that
we should be preparing our households for a spouse losing their job and I also
hear you all you know referencing a lot and I’ve been visiting it and it’s true I’m seeing more and more every day I
think it’s dailyjobcuts.com you know is publishing you know what’s happening you know how concerned should we be
regarding job loss now in the US I mean with all this debt and you know if you
you had to guess I mean how high would you expect unemployment rates to reach before we actually get out of this
mess so um you know it’s it’s interesting because uh you know the
founder of dailyjobcuts.com I I’ve gotten to know him over the last few years and the thing that alarms him the
most is the steadiness of the closures that he’s seen and to take one example yesterday
there were 17 announcements of closings yesterday one of the announcements of
the closings was 65 hospitals that had shut down departments or stopped providing Services one of the
other of the 17 closings was Z Gallery which is declared bankruptcy for a third
time in a row is closing 21 stores there were 12 companies yesterday that announced
layoffs one big bankruptcy one day this is just one
day um but the thing is here’s a little here’s a little bit of dirty laundry
that I’ve never actually shared on a podcast it used to be the case that if
you were company abz and you were laying off say 50
people in Maryland and 50 people in California that you wouldn’t actually
have to as the employer file a warn notice because you were under the 100
employee Thresh hold that requires you by law to let the state know that you’re going to be moving forward with
layoffs what the current Administration has done is require that if your company abz and you you’re going to lay off 100
people I don’t care they don’t care if it’s in 10 states you’ve got to file the war notices what do warn notices do warn
notices give the employee 60 to 90 days of severance to look for a job so there’s a pig in the python
that’s never occurred in Prior Cycles that’s artificially repressing if you will the jobless claims numbers that
many people in my world continue to reference as being so strong there’s there’s an artificial repression of this
on top of Yellow trucking going out of business a few months ago and that was 30,000 employees who got paid Severance
for months we haven’t seen him show up in the in the data but the data is coming you know economists talk about
the difference between non-farm payrolls the number of jobs created and the household survey why are these two
surveys is so far apart well if you’ve been told that you’re going to get laid off and you pick up the phone and not
that anybody does or however the Bure of Labor Statistics Reach Out re reaches out to people the household’s going to
say I don’t have a job I’ve been fired I’m collecting Severance fine but that doesn’t mean
that I think I have a job I know the company’s not going to call me back up and say come back to work after 60 or 90
days but if you call the employer that person’s technically on their payroll
they’re going to say I’ve got this many workers and it’s not until they’re off the payroll and they stop paying
Severance that they’re going to say that this person is no longer an employe so there’s a lot of mud in the data and
there’s a lot that we don’t see that’s actually occurring out there but I talked to everybody in all walks of life
and I was in Las Vegas recently I was just speaking to an everyday person who
was lamenting that she had a rental property in Tampa Bay and that she was
fine with the one long-term lease on half of the duplex but boy she couldn’t rent it out on the other side and she
was worried she was going to get be foreclosed on and she she was just hoping that she could turn her her
duplex into two long-term leases instead of one long-term lease and one short-term rental she’s not
alone yeah we see it you know um you spoke earlier about Dr Lacy hunt you
know one of my favorite videos and interviews with you is one that you did and he’s your Mentor
I love that and um and to anyone that’s interested in watching it I’ll drop the uh link here in the show notes I I tell
you I recommend everybody taking the hour and watching this um but you know
you were really sharing insights uh not only on your experience with macroeconomics but what was really
happening with the job market and you know I hear all of this nonsense about I see all these job postings and and then
when I dive into it and I learn that a lot of them are part-time jobs who we’re trading in full-time jobs for part-time
jobs and they want to come out and say well the jobs report is so great you know uh you and Dr Hunt were talking
back and forth about um I think it was seven recent negative revisions to
non-farm payroll and you also said that this payroll data or the information is
not just lagging but not comp complete
and uh we’re not really hearing the real statistics and you know and I believe I mean one of the reasons I’m mentioning
this is I believe that unless we start really educating Americans or where we
are I mean this this could be catastrophic if we wake up one day and you you’re talking about the revisions
and all of a sudden we get this massive revision of the truth can you kind of
explain what you and Dr Lacy hump were talking about in layman’s terms
regarding wage decline that seven you know uh periods so um when it comes first to job
openings uh ironically it was uh two staff papers one from the St Louis fed
one from the Dallas fed that showed that 90% of job postings and they just they
attached big data to it 90% of the of job postings that are out there are written so that you can poach your
competitor’s best employee which means that you get your competitor’s best employees is now your best employee and
you don’t have to train him so you save you save them the cost the job postings exist but they’re not for new entrance
to the workforce they’re for people who already have a job which does not generate
squat now revisions are interesting because when I spoke with with Lacy last
time we’d had seven negative revisions in a row we had never had that
documented with the two exceptions of after having emerged from the double dip
recession that ended in 1981 after the revision the recession
had ended and in 2009 after the Great Recession had ended those are the only
two two other presidents and you know I um I I’ll I’ll just say it I think I
think there’s some some level of corruption in our uh in our data
agencies right now and I’m the data can’t be that wrong it can’t it cannot
disconnect so much with announcements of companies that they’re closing and firing people these they don’t vanish
Into Thin Air it’s not a figment of our Collective imagination but subsequent to uh the
link that you’re going to drop with me and and Lacy we found out that July and August
actually had positive revisions uh to the tune of I think
110,000 employees all government workers for the private payrolls they
were revised down by 12,000 for those two months extending the run to nine
months uh it I I’m I’m I’m a huge
Patriot my my sophomore and College he graduated from Culver Military Academy I’ve got two sophomores and a senior at
Culver milit Academy I love my country I stand for my flag I do but when the data
begins to make somebody who was you know working in in the Soviet unions in the
USSR when when it makes somebody from that era blush because it’s so obviously
corrupted you get concerned because we are a country where there should be transparency in data and it shouldn’t be
glossed over so there are some serious concerns right now with the data that
that we’re seeing and with a lot of the fraud that that’s occurred I I speak we could speak for a whole half hour about
the employee retention credit let’s just say that I’m happy that it’s on pause right now and I hope that the IRS ends
up canceling it because it lined the pockets of high net worth people to begin with uh who were making fraudulent
claims but this our our government is just not in a good place right now now and it’s not making policies that are
going to safeguard the long-term health of the United States and I hope that that changes well as a patriot I commend
you on your courage and I think you know and that’s one of the reasons why I think everybody should also read your
book because um you know it probably I mean you probably thought long and hard
you after you wrote that book when you know is this a good idea should I do it shouldn’t I do it but so I I really
thank you on that but let’s let’s turn our attention if we can just to you know kind of talk about the housing market uh
because obviously I mean you know wages talking about wages the growth hasn’t kept up with home prices that have
literally doubled since 2019 and historically I mean I don’t
think we’ve ever seen anything like this housing market uh where it’s been so unaffordable since post World War II and
you know in most markets I think now it’s cheaper to rent than own you know
and I don’t want to go down the I I have so many other questions I want to just ask and touch on but you know
everybody’s talking about the world economic Forum I get a lot of comments on my channel where people were like oh this is all part of the plan you know
rent and be happy um do you think that we are in for a
major housing crash well because you bring up the fact that it is
so much more economical to to rent I’m good friends with zelman she has
proprietary data on um on many things many aspects one of them is a monthly
apartment operator survey that she runs and uh in terms of pricing power you’ve
got two cities in America right now Philadelphia and Chicago that have pricing power in their apartment market
and that’s because developers didn’t go there because they were crime ridden but anywhere else where the 1.2 million
units that’s come on in the last three years in addition to the 1 million units in the pipeline of Apartments tells you
that Americans are home buying conditions have never
been as low as they are and yet home sellers are still being told by way too
many Realtors to hold out for a higher price so it’s but home buyers don’t have
to they don’t and I I think that the buyer strike is going to be a very real
thing because apartment renting is so much cheaper on a relative basis and
you’re talking about luxury units first month free last month free blah blah blah incentives to try and get people in
the door um rental appreciation for new movein is below where it was in the
third quarter of 2019 end of story so um I do think that
that housing is going to be uh in a severe and
protracted correction you know it’s interesting you said that buyers are on strike or will
go on strike they’re on strike I mean I’m talking to them I get so many buyers that reach out to me all over the
country because of our show and uh I mean they’re they’re slamming their foot down and I mean they are commanding the
show right now we are seeing higher contract cancellations than we’ve ever seen uh you know I think 16% uh is what
they’re saying the national average in Atlanta Georgia it’s almost 25% in SE September of the contracts uh to
purchase were just Flatout cancelled and a lot of these buyers and and you’re
right I mean a lot of the problem is in my own industry I mean the cheerleading the date theay you know don’t worry
about it and one of the things that I want to kind of ask you um is that you know I mean Barbara corkran obviously
you know who she is I mean look Danielle she’s going out and saying I mean talk
about being out of touch she’s actually saying guys don’t stop buying because when interest rates drop back down and
have a five in front of them you know home prices are going to soore is exactly what she said and she said you
know they’re going to go up 20% and I’m going I don’t think that we can afford
this and you know and and and that’s why somehow in the back of my mind I’m saying you know we’re looking at it’s
said that one in four single family houses are you know owned by institutional investors
and you know you can thank the the crisis the global financial crisis for that all of those you know homes were
bundled up fed to Wall Street they got their fangs in what it is like to be in
residential housing and you know they’ve seen nothing but good times and you know
since they bought on nickels on the dollar some experts are actually saying that by 2030 40% of the single family
homes will be owned by institutional investors I mean what do you say about
you know Barbara corkran cheerleading and you know do you think that it’s a possibility that we just
won’t have any affordable single family houses well I mean bless her heart she’s
talking her book that that’s never happened before um I think
that I’m trying not to be too political here um I think that there are a lot of
Americans who are younger than me don’t like to pay their
bills and I I think that quite a few of them might
vote so that they don’t have to pay their bills and if the government starts to
hand out stimulus checks the same way that it did after the pandemic hit which
was basically a a test study of universal basic income that failed
um I think that if that happens we could see runaway
inflation uh I mean the the dollar would get destroyed the country would be destroyed everything would be destroyed
everything as we know it would would go to hell in a in a hand basket I hope that doesn’t happen because I want my I
want my children to grow up here and and have children and um but as things stand today if cooler
heads prevail in Washington d there’s no way in hell prices are going to go up 40% what advice do you have for
someone that is on the sidelines right right now hoping rent I mean I I heard
you say you know wait I think uh one interview you said wait till 2025 or
just kind of hold off I mean are you thinking that things will be better by
then um I think that that A lot’s going to occur but between now and 2025 2025
is is a critical Milestone on the calendar because if there is a Blue Wave or if Donald Trump
wins the election because he he invented socialism in America that was the cares act so um but the the reason I bring
that up is because the earliest the earliest the soonest we’re going to see that type of stimulus is March of
2025 it’s a long way between now and then and between now and then there’s
not going to be any helicopter money distributed to us households and that means that the household default cycle
is finally arriving finally finally finally um you know even by next next
October there’ll be millions of Americans who were either going to declare bankruptcy or start repaying
their student loans if right now they’re not paying them because it doesn’t go on their credit report it’s
coming so um there are there just aren’t places to hide right now if you’re a US
household you’re either going to make good or you’re going to default and for a lot of Americans they’re going to end
up defaulting and by the way for so many through no fault of their own you know
when they bought that new home in July of 2022 and the home builder bought down the rate they believe that a year later
in July of 2023 that mortgage rates would certainly not have gone up but yet
they have so this is going to force a lot of hands and and it’s a tragedy that
it’s going to force a lot of hands because people were hwi into thinking that you can date the rate and by the
way if mortgage prices come back down to 5% that means that the feds panic because we’re in a deep recession so one
thing over all things Trump’s mortgage rates and that’s whether or not you have a
job well we thank you so much for your time I mean I we could we could talk to you for hours on end and uh Danielle why
don’t you tell everybody I mean how can they follow you you know we’ll drop the links below I mean tell everybody how
they can reach out so at Qi research um we’re 2025 is our 10 year anniversary
wow but we publish every day and um we we actually have a very reasonable uh
newsletter that goes out um every trading day for 59 bucks a month my institutional clients scream because
it’s too cheap but it is it is what it is so um come find me D Martino booth.
sub.com D martino. sub.com and if you don’t already follow me on Twitter then
you got to get out more so follow me at D Martino Booth because it’s always entertaining and by the way if you’re
wondering yes I’m being sarcastic well look I can’t thank you enough thank you so much I hope that we
get to do it again someday in the future and uh we’ll talk to you soon thank you
I appreciate your time good good talk well I could have spoken with uh Danielle for hours upon hours and I
think she’s very knowledgeable obviously I hope that you felt the same if you like the video you can smash that thumbs
up to let Danielle and I both know that you did and guys cruise on over to Danielle subscribe to her Channel she
puts out great content just like our interview and if you’re not subscribed to our Channel maybe take a moment and
do so now hit the alert Bell you’ll be notified every time we upload content but guys the biggest thing that favor
really that I need to ask of you right now is that this information is so important and we’re not hearing it in
mainstream media if you would do me a personal favor and share this with at least another person one of your friends
or family members that should be aware of what’s really going on see you next
time sxy Maryland broker number 6077 20 office number 443
318451 4 Equal Housing Opportunity