Housing Market Trends Just Changed...
Transcript:
well going to go over a couple of
stories that are really neat one first
off unseasonable housing market trends
are emerging this fall that’s important
because it’s not seasonable this is not
normal this is not a normal Market
markets are starting to turn down in the
housing real estate markets uh then
we’re going to talk about something out
of Wolf Street home prices falling
further from the peak of June
2022 demand crashes price Cuts jump
Supply and days on the market rise this
is really in interesting information
because it is not just
about uh really hot markets it’s about
the entire country all right as a matter
of fact I had uh dinner with somebody
the other night says oh housing is not
falling in my area of the country and I
go where where do you live he says
Kansas I said all right what town tells
me within uh 10 seconds I’m on real.com
and I find that about 10% of the
listings have price decreases and he’d
say oh well that’s a bad part of town oh
that’s about this I’m like you’re not
getting
it what you just said is not true so and
that was just about 10 seconds of my
life it didn’t take very long to find
these price drops okay but this is going
to get better this is not the time to
jump in look I’ve been a real estate
investor since the year 2001 I have
owned uh real estate brokerage a
property management company I’ve been a
flipper I have been a real estate agent
I’ve been just about in every aspect of
this and I’m telling you right now from
a lot of experience in selling my homes
before the last crash seeing that happen
we have something on our hands that is
much much bigger than that all right so
let’s dive right into the first story
and real quick if you don’t mind uh this
is the real estate ninja Channel this is
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real estate and it has all different
types of stories than what is just on
the economic ninja Channel thank you so
much so this story is out of the
National Mortgage professional and it’s
entitled unseasonable housing market
trends emerg this
fall it says real.com October report
reveals unexpected inventory growth and
growing price Cuts suggesting potential
Market shifts as home buyers grapple
with financial challenges and financial
challenges is an understatement when we
have record high credit card defaults
right now and Auto Loan delinquency
rates we are blowing up the market is
imploding and you are going to see a lot
of opportunity here pretty soon it says
despite stable home prices this October
and we’re about to get into that in the
next Story the housing market is
exhibiting signs of potential shifts as
a new realor.com report highlights
seasonable or sorry unseasonable
inventory growth and mounting price
reductions these Trends come as mortgage
rates surpass a 20-year Peak challenging
prospective home buyers it says for the
fourth consecutive month there has been
a decline in the number of homes
actively listed for sale with inventory
dropping 2% year-over-year nonetheless
October brought an unexpected inventory
Rise of 5.1% An Unexpected well this
isn’t anything that’s unexpected to the
subscribers of this channel I’ve been
telling you that inventory will be
rising and it’s really neat when they
start saying this was unexpected and
because this is not normal for the
season of the year that we’re in they go
on to say while record high mortgage
rates are putting off many would be
buyers decreases in both inventory and
time home spent on the market shows that
some buyers are moving quickly to lock
in rates before they can go any higher
this comes from Danielle hail a chief
Economist at realor.com you know it’s
really funny to me a chief economists uh
really don’t earn their title I guess
maybe they’re the only ones left there
because because the ones that are worth
a grain of salt are out there making
real
money but these Chief economists are
always wrong case in point the chief
Economist uh over in u the National
Association of realators this person was
even being blam for being 100% wrong in
2007 back in 2007 and yet he still has a
job blows me away says here amid stable
listing prices a gradually increasing
share of homes is witnessing price Cuts
although this percentage is down
annually the sequential growth might be
an indicator of potential softening in
home prices in the upcoming months let
me explain that because there’s a lot of
word smithing going on that people need
to realize here it says here amid stable
listing prices a gradual increase of
share home share of homes is witnessing
price Cuts this is the key what what
they do here although this percentage is
down annually let me explain something
if you look at the annual numbers last
year compared to this year for Price
reductions they’re right you are going
to see that there were fewer price
reductions last year as there is this
year that is a no-brainer because the
market was redh hot last year this time
because people were freaking out over
Rising interest rates Rising mortgage
rates we are in a moment where the
10-year bond this is something that
doesn’t happen a whole lot of times in
history where the the bond Market’s
running away from where the Federal
Reserve wants it to go now the FED is on
record saying you know what this is
actually not a bad thing because that
means we don’t have to continually raise
our Benchmark rate which causes Banks to
it to get more expensive for
banks but the tenure keeps running away
so it’s crushing the consumer when it
comes to mortgages and other uh certain
types of debt that are tied to bonds
right that is very easy to identify now
they say here because High mortgage
rates elevated home prices and
stubbornly low inventory made hous
today’s housing market particularly
challenging many of today’s buyers are
motivated by Life Changes such as
growing families supporting elderly
parents or growing grown children or
accommodating professional needs from
return to office mandates to relocation
opportunities created by remote
work this is exactly what I was saying
that continually causes and fuels a
crisis a crash you know people people
say that no no this real estate’s never
going to go down because inventory is
super low and I said no inventory is
going to get really strong as fear sets
in and would be home sellers that have
been sitting on the sides with rental
properties or extra properties now we’re
seeing Oh my gosh it turned and we’re
starting to throw our properties on the
market increasing the inventory and
since there’s only a small po pool of
crazy people out there and I say crazy
you know because most real estate deals
are bought in Emotion if you’re a real
estate agent you know exactly what I’m
talking about if you’re buyer agent it’s
based off of emotion you know I can’t
tell you how many times I showed a
property and somebody cared more about
the color of the house that’s why they
didn’t like it and that’s why they
didn’t sell it over well what are the
bones like what is the the FL plan oh I
like Flor plan it’s just the color you
could paint a house I’m not joking this
is how a most there’s so many emotional
buyers out there and when you’re dealing
with a rising interest rate environment
it gets even more emotional and people
freak out and just I’ll take it 10 grand
over asking price I got to get it now or
I’m because all they’re seeing is what
they lost last month what they lost out
on and the the fomo increases the
opportunity for a crash now check this
out I got this story right here out of
wool street so oh in closing on this
this story uh they go into why this is
not normal it says here we go listing
prices remained supported by low
inventory so they kept listing prices
overall we’re talking nationally listing
prices remain sort of steady they’re
saying steady they’re not saying it’s
rising they’re
steady supported by low inventory this
next story is going to blow your mind
when it talks about this although
national median list prices dipped
seasonally to 425,000 so that means
nationally median home prices are
falling they’re using the word dipped
because that doesn’t sound as bad okay
it’s falling now you October they went
from 430,000 to 425,000 in September
prices in larger metros still showed up
showed an upward Trend however notable
is the increasing share of homes with
price Cuts there is your massive key
higher inventory and more price cuts
that is a that is fueling the fire that
you have been preparing for it says
however notable is the increase in share
of homes price Cuts indicating the
sellers attempts to entice buyers in
with a high mortgage rate environment so
now let’s move on to this next story and
this I find to be very
important all right here we go this
story is out of Wolf Street home prices
fall further Peak was June of
2022 demand crashes price Cuts jump
Supply and days on Market rise now why
is June 2022 important well it’s because
I made a real and I’m not joking this
this is not like hey look at me it’s the
truth you can go back to uh the economic
n ninja Channel and you can see in the
month of June 2022 I made a video said
we’re we’ve we’ve hit it we’re at the
top it’s over from here and I said we
have hit the peak and a very famous uh
person in finance Dave Ramsey actually
came out and said you are crazy that
month you are crazy if you do not buy a
house because houses never fall in price
they only fell and he this is his words
not mine for a few months in 2008 and
only in a few areas he’s very delusional
he actually knows the truth but he also
said something very similar about the
crash in housing in uh and in the do’s
crash of what 200000 to
2001
so this was a very pivotal time and that
was because rates jumped up just a
little bit and consumer sentiment in the
housing market slumped mad in June of
2022 so here we go it says the national
median price of previously owned homes
condos and co-ops fell to
$394,000 in September which is down by
4.7% from its peak 18 months ago in June
of 2022 now to give you some some scope
this is getting ready to already be in
the next 6 months larger than the entire
2006 to
2012 housing crisis and I put those
dates because that is how long it took
to go from Peak to
trough high to low in the housing market
so if you’re worried about getting ready
for this or that you’re not going to
have time you do have time okay you you
have need to put actionable items in
place or actionable steps in your life
right now to get ready for this but what
is most important is that you actually
hold on your credit score that is what
most people fail to do and that is why
there’s so few buyers during a housing
market crash because they can’t uh get
loans the banks are like we’re not going
to touch you during this this
market so it says June is usually the
seasonal price peak of the year but June
2023 was below the peak in June of 2022
for the first time since the housing bus
and prices skitted lower since then due
to the price plunge last year in July
through September the median price was
up year-over-year by
2.8% but that was a lower rate than the
3.2% year-over-year in August now you
could see this is a chart dating back to
2013 and just imagine this is like an
EKG of your heart but this is the
housing market and you could see every
single year based on seasonality uh
price changes and this is why I always
buy my homes in the month of December
right I I do a buying spree especially
when I was flipping homes that was the
best time because then I would uh I
would rehab them and flip them by uh
Springtime it was great but you could
see up here at the top of the chart
where now we have a higher a lower high
now that might not look like a lot and
people go oh that’s not that big of a
deal you just give it a year and watch
what happens it’s going to be
exciting says price reductions have
jumped to
37.5% of acting listings in September
37.5% of all listings in September saw a
price drop so let me ask you this type
one if you think the housing Market’s
super strong type two if you believe
that 37 since
37% of housing listings had to see a
price reduction the type two if you
think the housing market is incorrection
now we are moving downwards and this is
only going to get bigger and better it
says uh this was blowing by the
pre-pandemic highs pre pandemic highs so
because the real estate market was
already in trouble right before the
pandemic so this number right here this
percentage of price reductions is
blowing past what we were experiencing
in 2018 and 2019 as sellers are getting
more motivated to sell their homes while
buyers have vanished at these prices it
says sales of previously owned condos
houses and co-ops crashed to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of
3.96 million homes in September that’s
the lowest since the depth of the
housing bust in 2010 so I I can’t I
don’t know how to explain this even
better we are seeing numbers in the
housing market that we have not seen
since the depths of the housing bus in
2010 now the thing is the only thing
that people judge a housing market by
it’s strength or its illness its
sickness is prices what you have to
remember is that is only good until the
very last phase of a collapse and then
price falls off a cliff so we have now
put together every single metric needed
for a housing collapse you have and now
the price is already starting to drop so
everything is lined up and now you’re
going to see an escalation of the
housing price drop that is why you need
to be prepared by the way I threw some
80% off links down below $199 for the uh
real estate crash course how to prepare
right now if it’s not $199 that means
it’s not 80% off um it says here
uh the N National Association rors which
is in hot water anyway after this last I
did a video on it the big judgment
against the N um or against these
certain brokerages which the N is always
lobing for uh for you know how much
they’ve been pulling in fees the N
demands its Easy Money heroin back from
the FED it says the Federal Reserve
simply cannot keep raising interest
rates in light of softening inflation
and weakening job gains wh the N Chief
Economist Lawrence Young this gentleman
is the one that kept telling everyone in
2007 you’re crazy nuts buy houses
they’re never going to drop he is 100%
wrong he’s been 100% wrong in the past
and he should be
fired I hope he’s watching
this Lawrence Young should not be the
chief Economist of his own household
budget Lawrence Yan has no idea
how the Federal Reserve
and rising and lowering interest rates
affect the housing market or he does and
he’s straight up line either way he
shouldn’t have his job the industry has
gotten hooked on the heroin of fed’s
easy money between 2008 and 2022 that
cause mortgage rates to plunge below 3%
and home prices to inflate to the moon
and now they hate the normalization of
interest rates and want their heroin
back you know it’s interesting that
Lawrence Young says stuff like this
and he enjoyed all of this rise in
housing now he’s looking like a fool
because he was the ultimate cheerleader
and look at how he speaks
now now check this out actual sales not
seasonally adjusted annual rate fell
sales fell 18.9% from the already
depressed levels in September of 2022 to
347,000 homes January and February
usually marks the low points of the year
June marks the peak volume and the end
of spring season selling during the
second half sales carine lower the
actual sales data offer a better picture
of sales and seasonally than the
seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales
above hold on I’m blanking out now that
story just dropped off sorry supply and
demand these homeowners have vanished as
both buyers and sellers at the same time
they left the market as buyers and
sellers as a result there is less churn
and reelers make money off the churn
coming and going and so the National
Association of Realtors whines about
this situation that is so dire for them
but as far as markets are concerned with
both buyers and sellers gone in equal
measure the balance is still there but
it’s just a lot lower lower demand lower
Supply lower churn and less money for
realators there are a lot of reals that
are going to be walking away from their
jobs in the next 6 months and and
actually there already have been a ton
of real estate agents that have walked
there are a lot of real estate agent
teams that are building up because
they’re trying to band together you know
five mines are better than one kind of
thing but the fact is there’s no income
for them this Market is crashing and
it’s crashing fast the only difference
is are you going to be ready for it this
time or are you going to sit on the
sidelines like a lot of people did in
2008
2012 this is the time to take action
type three if you’re ready to take
action type four if you’re not it’s okay
but the fact of the matter is if you’re
ready for this and you’re prepared and
you have actionable steps that you can
take then that’s that’s going to be the
difference between you making a lot of
money or sitting back and watching
someone else do it themselves I put
links down below that course will
literally line out for $199 what you can
do right now and to start to identify
and I’ll will teach you how uh real
estate Cycles work and what you can do
right now to take advantage of this
because once you it you get hungry and
you just want more and more I can’t wait
to see you guys at the end of 2024 when
we start buying up homes with that being
said the economic ninja and the real
estate ninja are
out